Lately, the crypto chatterbox has been buzzing with two conflicting refrains: “Alt season is coming!” and, at other times, “Alt season is over.” As both a curious observer and someone who wants clear insight, I wondered, “Which one is actually true?” So I rolled up my sleeves, looked at the data, and here’s what I found, fresh from real, credible indicators.
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Understanding the Altcoin Season Index (Your Reality Check)
Think of the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) as a scorecard that compares altcoins to Bitcoin. It reflects how many of the top altcoins have outpaced Bitcoin over the last 90 days. If 75 percent of them did, that often signals a full-blown altcoin season. When the score dips below 25, Bitcoin is calling the shots.
What have the numbers said over the past months?
- June 2025: The ASI dropped to about 12, meaning almost all altcoins trailed behind Bitcoin.
- Now (mid-August 2025): The index has climbed to around 41, which still places us firmly in Bitcoin Season, not altcoin season.
So, while a rising index hints at rotation, altcoins are not yet leading the charge.
Bitcoin Dominance: The Bigger Picture
Shifting our gaze, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) measures what portion of the total crypto market cap Bitcoin holds. When BTC.D shrinks, that often signals money moving into altcoins, fueling their rise.
- Recently, Bitcoin’s share of the market dropped by around 5 percent, a sign that altcoins are gaining some attention.
- Additionally, some analysts noted classic bullish chart formations like cup-and-handle in altcoin market cap charts, hinting that altcoin season might be creeping closer.
That said, even though Bitcoin is loosening its grip a little, altcoins have not yet taken the spotlight.
Memes, Risk, and Warnings Along the Way
Even though data does not confirm alt season yet, there is a lot of excitement brewing.
- A recent article put it plainly: “Altcoin season looms”, suggesting optimism, but it also reminded readers that the space is highly speculative.
- Other outlets noted vulnerabilities. Altcoins like Ether, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin saw volatility, and some analysts attributed pullbacks to regulatory uncertainty and Bitcoin’s price plateau.
In other words, yes, there is action. But hype does not equal momentum, and risks remain high.
So, Who’s Right? “Coming” or “Over”?
“Alt season is coming”
That view leans on a recovering Altcoin Season Index, falling BTC dominance, and bullish patterns on altcoin charts. If altcoins rally, this path could lead somewhere.
“Alt season is over”
That perspective leans on still-low ASI scores and current dominance patterns. After a brief surge or even a false breakout, altcoins might fade again.
A Story of a Wave in Analogy
Let me borrow a surfer’s metaphor. Picture Bitcoin as a large wave pushing into the shore first. Then, smaller waves, representing altcoins, follow behind. Sometimes, those follow-on waves come strong. Other times, they just trickle in.
Right now, we are seeing hints of rising tide, some splashes and boarders heading toward altcoins, but we have not yet seen the full, crashing wave that signifies altcoin season in full bloom.
What Should You Do If You Are New to This
- Track the ASI. Watch for a move above 75, which historically signals altcoin season.
- Watch Bitcoin Dominance. A clear, sustained drop can further fuel rotations.
- Be selective. If you choose to explore altcoins now, go for names with use cases, development, and real value.
- Manage risk. Alt seasons can be short and sharp. Have a clear exit plan and avoid chasing hype.
So..
In the past three months, the crypto landscape has shifted, but not enough to confirm a full altcoin season. While the Altcoin Season Index is rising and BTC dominance is easing, we still linger in Bitcoin’s season. Yet, there is undeniable buzz. The setup feels like the calm before the ride, not the ride itself.
So, if someone says, “Alt season is coming,” they are not wrong, but the season has not fully arrived. And if someone says, “Alt season is over,” they are getting ahead of themselves. Right now, we are in an early rotation stage, and from where I sit, the altcoin wave might soon pick up. Patience and a measured approach will be your friend.
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