Good Afternoon Hacker,
I've decided to write a compressed version of my book "Bitcoin - King of Speculation" in a unique HackerNoon Edition.
Each article will be one chapter.
This is Chapter 1. Read the introduction here.
Enjoy the ride.
Bitcoin Hodling
Is it a ponzi scheme? or is it a quiet reshuffling of the cards in the world's financial markets?
These are the two opinions on Bitcoin at the moment.
- It's a Ponzi Scheme
Those who think it is a ponzi scheme have a reason to. Thus :
If Bitcoin held is never to be sold, where's the yield to be paid to investors buying various Bitcoin instruments, going to come from?
New entrants to the game. New fodder for the rug-pull lords.
Ever heard the phrase "kick the can down the road"? Massive Bitcoin Treasury companies like Strategy are literally kicking the Bitcoin bag down the road. In broad daylight.
This first camp thinks this will be the biggest cryptocurrency bubble in the history of cryptocurrency bubbles.
I don't blame them. But I don't agree with them.
To me, we (Bitcoiners) are not going to be kicking the bag down the road forever. There will be at point at which more debt cannot be found to buy bitcoins not because the debt creating machines will have stopped, but because the bitcoins will have dried up.
- Bitcoin Scarcity is the (first) End Game
There is an endgame, and it is Bitcoin's scarcity.
This is why any other treasury plan (be it with ETH, Solana, Doge, PEPE, …) makes no sense. I don't care what your coin is called or what magical toolkit it has. If it is not verifiably scarce, it has no point being in a treasury or a strategic reserve. Because the can-kicking for that coin will verifiably not end.
Hodling is the most finance-like aspect of Bitcoin speculation because Bitcoin is Scarce.
I might make a song about it too. It begs repeating over and over and …
So the game doesn't end with some investors in Strategy demanding payment and not getting paid.
It ends with new investors asking to join the club, and the DJ, Michael Saylor, is like
"Sorry".
"We're full".
People who are joining Strategy are not planning to exit and go sip margaritas 🍹 in Dubai.
And if they are, and we need them for the Post-Supply-Shock, they will be convinced not to exit.
Exit to buy inflating or hyperinflating currency? Why do that? Why piss away a spot at King Arthur’s table for a quick pay day?
In fact, I believe Strategy will have so many people waiting to join the club that anybody who wants to exit will be paid promptly and they can go away.
This will happen early and underground, of course. While normie coiners and no-coiners are still sleeping.
The game of hodling will end in a financial phase shift. How it will happen, I am here to imagine.
Just stick with me.
For one, I don't think there will be fireworks.
But Perhaps, Bitcoin services in various exchanges will suddenly be suspended!.
Oops.
Or maybe, the price will jump and get stuck at $210k. Because some financial engineer(s) has found a way to artificially stick it there, and stop a crucial amount of Bitcoin-price-driving stacking from visibly denting the engineering. At least for a few decades.
This is all speculative. But this book is exactly about this.
Bitcoin speculation.
NFA, DYOR, This is Financial Entertainment (TIFE).
***
Strategy’s Stacking Threshold
In the first iteration of this book, I speculated on Bitcoiners stopping Michael Saylor from stacking too much.
Beyond a hypothetical threshold.
I wrote;
If say 4 million BTC in Saylor’s hands before 2030 is the threshold beyond which the community will not be comfortable dealing with Michael Saylor as a fellow Bitcoiner, then Saylor might have to spend his sats before they hit 4 million!
It’s one of those ultimatums that communities give their members.
Because like it or not, Saylor will have become exactly what he is fighting – a rich Oligarch.
“But I worked hard to stack?” “
“Sell your BTC Saylor, don’t you think of adding one more satoshi to your stack when we hardly have 0.1 BTC for each one of us”.
If Saylor thumbs his nose at us and keep’s stacking more millions of BTC, through his now massively increasing influence (as he will be a trillionaire), we shall put the hard fork in the road and go the way of freedom.
Saylor’s coins soon become Bitcoin_Saylor_Version. Ours – BTC. BTC belongs to the people.
“You want to join the Oligarch’s chain?” in Andreas Antonopolous’ voice. “No”.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Having too many millions in BTC is absolute power.
No wonder then that Satoshi Nakamoto, after mining millions of BTC for himself, left.
It is quite the spin, but it is also quite plausible. Years later, after people, especially Bitcoiners, realize what Hodling has done to them.
Turned many of them into measly-coiners (people who own so few sats it doesn’t make any difference if they had none at all).
Given what I have shared before where Saylor stacks till the millions per BTC are realised AND then major Bitcoin exchanges have their bitcoins dry up, then there is a possibility that noise will be made by Bitcoiners.
Noise for more BTC.
"Because we now want to stack!"
It will be fun. Most people will wish they stacked when the faucets are sucked dry, trust me.
But if you barely have a job even now, would it have made any difference?
Even those who stacked, though, will feel bitter if they are not invited into Saylor’s club. Nor Pompliano’s, Back’s, or Ardoino’s club.
In a nutshell, some people will have Bitcoin and access to new financial opportunities, while others will have Bitcoin and still no access to new financial opportunities.
Most people will have no Bitcoin, and they will have no way to get some without incurring a loss (mining fees about to go sky high).
It will be what it will be.
And it will make the supply shock a little, well, sour.
We’ll need to convene a community meeting not long after. So that many frustrated people (especially those loyal to Bitcoin’s MoE function) don’t sabotage their efforts for Bitcoin.
A United Nations Bitcoin Meeting.
Possibly done over Zoom, X, Google Meet. Done over months. To discuss who badly needs access to what opportunities and if a hard fork or soft fork is necessary to re-distribute sats and help start the re-stacking all over again. On 2x the steroids and 2x the real utility.
Imagine that power.
With Great Power comes … the ability to own a Nuke
I wanted to save this part for Chapter 4, but I couldn’t help mentioning it here. Given the wars we're having.
See, Bitcoin has so far orange-pilled millions of people including presidents and billionaires.
If it continues, especially with the focusing of financial lens that the Supply Shock will create, we shall soon have Bitcoin bodyguards, Bitcoin armies, and Bitcoin nukes!
Not to fight wars, to NOT fight wars.
I’ll delve more later but, in a nutshell,
the ownership of nukes and the power to make nukes or effectively disarm others of nukes will tend, over time (be it decades or centuries) towards those who take on the most responsibility for human flourishing.
This is my own quote.
Now wait for Chapter 4.
See you next time in Chapter 2.
Adios Muchachos.