How many times per day do you mention (or hear about) Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) in crypto? OK, it’s time for real talk: FDV is crypto’s favorite magic trick.

Like, I get it: “Only $12M FDV” sounds sexy on a pitch deck. Feels exclusive. Feels early. Makes the degen inside you whisper, what if this is the next $SOL?

But here’s the thing nobody with a fancy “web3 advisor” LinkedIn profile will tell you:

FDV is mostly marketing. Not valuation. Not reality. Just vibes, spreadsheets, and hopium.

I’ve launched tokens. I’ve raised from syndicates, funds, and some well-known crypto VC investors who quote FDV like gospel. I’ve also watched those same funds sell into TGE like they’re speedrunning exit liquidity. So yeah, I’ve got opinions.

FDV ≠ Valuation. Never Has, Never Will.

This one drives me nuts. I see founders brag “we launched at $15M FDV” like it’s a badge of honor.

Bro. That’s not your valuation - that’s your fantasy market cap if every token magically had liquidity today.

It’s like saying your meme coin is worth a billion because you printed a billion tokens and priced one at $1 on Uniswap.

Cute. But no.

Real valuation? That’s what the market’s actually willing to buy your token for - today, with real money, under real liquidity constraints. If you’re trading at $0.04 with 3% float and $250K of liquidity, your actual valuation is more like a liquid float cap of $2-3M. Everything else is narrative.

VCs know this. That’s why their “low FDV entry” still comes with multi-year cliffs and backloaded unlocks. They’re not betting on your vision. They’re betting on your ability to manufacture enough hype by TGE for exit velocity. Sad but true.

Float Eats FDV for Breakfast

Price discovery doesn’t care about your FDV slide. It cares about float, unlock schedules, and how many insiders are silently queuing up to dump.

You ever watch a token nuke 80% post-TGE even though the “FDV” was just $10M? - Happens all the time.

Why? Because float was 10% and unlocks were frontloaded. Liquidity was thin. KOLs got cheap allocations and dumped into every green candle like it was a reflex.

If FDV mattered, none of that would happen. But price doesn’t care about your slide deck. It cares about supply and demand - and most founders are still designing supply to rug demand.

FDV Is Just a Pretty Lie

Let’s be honest: FDV is a sticker on the box. It’s what you slap on the deck to make the round feel fair. “We’re raising at $10M-$20M FDV” sounds digestible to angels and early investors. Meanwhile, insiders hold 70%, liquidity is $300K deep, and everyone’s hoping retail doesn’t read (and understand) the vesting chart.

I’ve seen funds brag they got in at $15M FDV… then list that same token in their portfolio at $300M FDV because “that’s the market now.” Zero shame. No context. Just straight-up vapor math.

And don’t get me started on how many influencers parrot FDV like it’s gospel. “Low cap gem!” they say, pointing to a chart that has 95% locked supply and $80K of real liquidity. You are not early. You’re bait.

The 2025 Meta: Float, Liquidity, Structure

If we’re being grownups about it — and that’s a big if — here’s what should matter:

These are real questions. They separate the ponzis from the plays.

Smart money in 2025 won’t ask “What’s the FDV?”

They’ll ask: What’s the float? Who’s exiting? What’s the support structure?

Everything else is just some opium dust.

I’ll stop here before I rant myself into another coffee. But if you’re a founder pitching FDV as valuation - don’t.

You’re lying to yourself.

And if you’re a trader buying based on FDV - good luck. You’re the product.

Call it what it is: Fully Deceived Valuation.

Now let’s hear it — what’s the worst FDV rug you’ve ever bought?